Monday, July 22, 2013

Initial Market Update

I say "initial", because I have more work to do to put this together more coherently.

Different charts are all over the place from intraday positives like I saw and showed (especially in the weekend posts), some of those are starting to fail, some are still strong and it's the same with individual stocks and I believe it's due to need, take the just posted NFLX update, you knew what I was looking for there, I spelled it out plain as day last night and then it got a little 3C help after a shakeout and will likely do that.

XLF for example, I spelled out what I was looking for there and that happened, but as the 1 min NFLX is getting stronger because it hasn't done what it needs to do yet, the 1 min XLF is getting weaker because it has done what it needed to do.

 NFLX made a shakeout move below the triangle I am looking for an upside breakout (false breakout) and then the 1 min 3C chart improved dramatically, even since the last update just 30 mins ago or so.

XLF crossed above the multi day, flat range/resistance zone and its 1 min chart is going negative now. Remember there wasn't much support past 2 or 3 min in any asset except maybe the Q's

Like I said over the weekend, "Strength / Support is skin deep".

We are seeing the same effect in the market averages to some degree based on what each average needs to do, the Q's being the most obvious. The point is this is not your typical market where just about everything moves together, each asset has its own mission today and I think as I said last week and over the weekend that these are largely the head fake moves that are the last thing we often see before a reversal.

The averages.

 DIA doesn't have a lot to do as far as I can tell, the 1 min is starting to go negative here, the next will be the 2 min below if it strengthens which it will at some point, I was initially thinking in the late afternoon or second part of the day.

DIA 2 min is in line. Strength for this move (today) was very limited, for instance...

As you can see, no strength at all migrated over to the DIA 3 min chart and it remains leading negative right where it was before this move based on 1-3 min charts started appearing mostly late Friday.

IWM 1 min seeing weakness creep in, it needs to migrate as well.

The QQQ 1 min is in line, but the QQQ has a mission.

This is a zoomed 5 min chart, it looks like it has much more support on an intraday basis than any other of the averages and it does because it ha a larger task to try to fill the gap, but...

 This is the same 5 min chart in context, leading deeply negative with a bounce within it to fill the gap most likely.

QQQ 10 min after that, confirms that it just gets worse so Q's should or will try to fill the gap, but looking at the bigger picture and you don't need to step back very far to see it,  there's a lot of problems for the averages and they are so close now that it's becoming difficult to decide between timing and the bigger picture/ not missing the trade over a few percent.

 SPY 1 min only 15 mins ago was just starting to go negative, now look.



SPY 2 min is going negative now that the SPY's mission was accomplished, you can see it right?

I'm going to check Leading Indicators and more individual stocks.

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