Thursday, July 11, 2013

HYG Puts Ready

HYG as most of you know is 1 of 3 arbitrage assets, HYG is High Yield Corp. Credit and represents smart money's "Risk on sentiment", these are often manipulated short term as you saw with the SPY Arbitrage yesterday.

TLT is 20+ year Treasuries and represents a "Flight to Safety", but has been acting differently lately here and there

VXX is VIX futures or the reach for protection.

To move the market up or support it through arbitrage of these 3 assets you need HYG up and TLT/VXX down

To pressure the market down, HYG down and TLT/VXX up or out performing their normal inverse correlation with the SPX.

HYG has been up all this week as has the market, in fact in at least 2 daily wraps I pointed out (especially Tuesday) the late day push in HYG that closed it from red to +0.05% gain, but it was for the Arb. value, not the gain.

Junk Credit trades almost exactly like HYG, but has no arbitrage value, it has been seeing strong distribution as a risk on asset for institutional traders. HYG is now following JNK's lead.

So I have Aug. $91 puts on deck and ready to go, just to give you an idea of what's going on in case you see a quick post of that position opening.

As far as the SPY Arbitrage today...
 There doesn't seem to be any "Lever Pulling" or short term/intraday manipulation as the differential is only 11 cents, yesterday it was something like $1.40

However, CONTEXT has not only not been re calibrated...
It's at a differential of $42.27 or about 42 ES points to the downside.

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