Strategic Update

I can take some of these positions that I have opened this week, especially the last 2 days, because I know what's pushing the market, I know what the market looks like without it pushing it and I know that what's pushing it is fading.

I didn't read the article about the carry trade, a member that I trust sent that to me and I had been talking about the AUD/JPY anyway as the overnight risk driver to lift options amidst light volume. There's the signals as well, and then there's the signals in the catalyst that look like the signals in the market/futures.

Let me get right to it.

We just had an intraday bump in the road...

 You can tell right from the NYSE TICK chart (all NYSE advancing stocks minus declining stocks), the channel coincides with the move in the market, the break of the channel coincides with the interruption of that move, often TICK will warn before market averages do, that's why I rec'd watching it from time to time.

This is the SPY (green) and the $AUD (FXA) in red, this represents the carry trade AUD/JPY, the AUD's ETF is FXA so it's not perfect, but close enough as you see.

Now about the pair...

 After heading down there was a positive divergence in the AUD/JPY pair, but 3C on FX crosses is only generally good on intraday charts, after that there's more of a flat line so I need to look at the individual currencies that make up the pair, in this case I really only need to know what the $AUD is doing, although knowing the Yen is helpful as well.

 Something changed in the AUD/JPY and fast, I didn't read the article from earlier, but from the looks of 3C, I'd say something like a carry trade being closed quickly was what happened here.

The 15 min is leading negative like the Index futures on the same timeframe.

The 30 min chart shows a decent area of accumulation, the $AUD should have run a lot more than this, but there's also a very sharp and quick negative divergence.
 

The 60 min shows the accumulation of $AUD, then look at how fast the 60 min chart shoots down to a leading negative divergence and very recently.

On a 2 hour chart where trends are visible without noise/details, the accumulation is clear, but so is the very sudden change in character as the most recent divergence is very sharp, very strong.

It does look like the AUD/JPY pair was closed out, I still haven't read that article, but perhaps something there makes sense with the above.