Market Update

Pre-Market I indicated that the carry pair that has been driving risk, AUD/JPY overall doesn't look good, this was one of the main points of yesterday's article, it's very rare to see a position accumulated and then distributed before it ever took off, something spooked money out of the trade that has been driving market upside since November 16th 2012 and especially the last week or so through the overnight session.

I mentioned this morning there was a short term positive on the AUD 5 min chart I thought could take the market higher intraday, there are a lot of obvious levels like I showed yesterday that would be well worth it to tag them as there would be volume at those levels which means money.

However, there wasn't anything beyond that 5 min chart in the AUD.

I've seen a lot of intraday charts that are showing deterioration on a number of timeframes and I'll give some basic examples of what this looks like and some of the other assets I've seen it in, Credit was one of the biggies.

Many of these charts had triangles for obvious breakouts and some already did, but there's an ugly tone running through all of these I'm listing which is far from complete. Let me stress that there are few that I'd take as of this moment, I'm just a bit concerned that this changes VERY fast so I want to get the basics out there so no one is shocked by what seems to be a sudden, extreme position. It's not sudden, it's cracking everywhere in different timeframes.

 QQQ 2 min, it's a short timeframe, but look at the action today alone which it is appropriate for this time in the day.

QQQ 3 min migration of that same action

QQQ 5 min migration of the same divergence

 IWM 1 min negative, but note the ascending bullish triangle, I was going to say this will break out and the negative signals are not good if it does, then the next chart I captured...

 IWM 3 min negative Just as it was breaking out, this is a popular technical analysis triangle for bulls and we have a lot of them.

HYG, Credit as well as an arbitrage asset, I told you last week how Junk Credit trades almost exactly like HYG and Junk had been seeing strong distribution way before HYG, now that it's bleeding in to HYG, this isn't good and it's a position I may add to as the loss in the puts there is only about -4%

HYG 2 min, again not a long timeframe, but for today at this time, appropriate and not looking good.

 The overall trend at HYG 10 min, now is it starting to come together? The larger negative is the larger underlying trend of what has already happened, the short term charts meeting up with these longer term ones is a timing mechanism in 3C.

 AUD/JPY's larger trend is clearly negative, but on this 1 min chart you can see a smaller (intraday perhaps? ) positive, it's like a bounce within a downtrend (the current signals above.)

 AUD 5 min as I said pre-masrket looks to be the one supporting that shorter term signal, but as I showed in pre-market, the next timeframe at 15 min is not positive and...

at 30 min it is negative.

As I was flipping through charts, these are others that had similar divergences to what you see at the top with the QQQ and others, all in different timeframes, a generally worsening tone, but fe I would jump in this minute, however once again I don't want to go from no information to an all of the sudden extreme sounding call.

Some of the others I saw thus far include: DIA, SPY, USO, XLF, AMZN, NFLX, TJX, MCP, FAS, JPM, XOM and TLT has a more positive (long type signal) which is interesting as it has seen odd trade the last few weeks.