I think with the SPX having taken out the psychological magnet of $1700, but showing no follow through at all, they'll need to resort to some kind of arbitrage, FX manipulation, etc.
For instance...
XLF is one group I showed you that I said I'd rather wait for a break above the recent high, that is the most obvious play in any reversal situation, setting a bull or bear trap, however, other than the overnight levitation, this market has had a very hard time adding anything intraday.
Look at the TICK chart, there's barely anything over 600, meaning 600 more NYSE stocks moving up than the median of dead even
which is insanely LOW, there's not only little or no follow through in price, individual stocks themselves are stalled.
The only way I can see this being resolved other than an overnight ramp is an arbitrage situation or some headline scanning algo and a WSJ rumor on one of their blogs or from Hilsenrath.
The SPY Arbitrage is negative because HYG has been knocked down so hard, VXX and TLT are holding up as the market tries to move.
I think there's real demand for protection in TLT and VIX Futures so the only one I think they can use to be effective to get over the hump would be HYG.
We'll see if they can pull it off, but that line in the sand is why I think I should be running scans tonight.
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