VXX / UVXY

The post on Tuesday which was forward looking, "Here's what I expect to happen to VXX and this is what would confirm the position" is how I like to usually feature a position, you know what we are looking for, you can monitor it and apply your own methodologies to it as well.

I like these positions (UVXY /VXX) a lot as they have done what was expected, they held up much better than they should have today.

The only thing that would keep me on the sidelines is Op-Ex Friday (even the weeklies get pinned now).

I also mentioned the "XLF" scenario, which is one other reason I'd be inclined to wait, especially if I were going to go with leverage/options.

If not, then a VXX long position would have less risk in this situation for me, but in addition to setting a stop, I'd also set a time limit on these, if it doesn't move in "X" days, time to scale out, but we'll get in to that more later.

The bottom line is the things posted Tuesday that we expected to happen, have happened, I don't want to chase trades, I want them to come to me.

I don't want to take a trade because of the probability of a move, I want to take a trade because it is high probability, low risk and has a good risk:reward potential. There's a difference between probabilities and high probability trades.