Market Update: Canceling Dinner Plans

I think over the last few weeks I've made it clear just how important Credit is right now, especially the VERY large and liquid HYG (High Yield Corp. Credit) which algo's use in an arbitrage scheme, "If credit, the smartest money in the room, is up, then stocks are a buy".

Credit is such an understated Leading indicator, few have any idea of how powerful it is and thus why I have been watching it so closely.

To give you an idea of what HYG has been able to do for this market (with or without the other two arbitrage assets, TLT/Treasuries and VXX/ Short Term VIX futures)...

 This is a 30 min chart going back to June 21st which as I have noted several times (check the archives for June 21st) is a day we saw strong accumulation, closed some shorts and opened some longs.

In green is HYG, in red the SPY. You  can clearly see they are moving together, but this is the market following credit rather than the other way around. The break that I first noticed yesterday was much bigger today, credit wants nothing to do with stocks/risk assets here, perhaps $1700 was the job, now the job is complete they are packing up and going home.

 I noticed HYG diverge with the SPX yesterday in yellow, today right off the open credit (HYG) diverged much more significantly.

This is what I've been waiting to see.

 Intraday this is the IWM 3 min with a triangle, surprise, surprise, we are seeing them everywhere and it's no coincidence, we're also seeing negative activity in 3C.
 
 The 5 min chart is showing migration which is important.

The 15 min chart should speak for itself without drawings.

And the 60 min IWM chart is really what this is all about (among other charts, this is an example in the IWM of what this is all about).

This is HYG and the intraday 3C chart thus far, I'll be keeping an eye on it. I doubt HYG would see a head fake move as very few retail traders even know of it much less trade it.

IN ANY CASE, I TAKE THESE SIGNALS AND THE BREAK IN CREDIT SO SERIOUSLY, I JUST GOT OFF THE PHONE CANCELING A 2 WEEK OLD DINNER RESERVATION SO I CAN RUN SCANS OF KEY ASSETS TO CONSIDER.