Financials

I've been watching Financials pretty much as a pair with GS, the market will always have the strongest directional pull on any given stock on any given day, but the Industry group is next.

This is what XLF is looking like, there's definite deterioration, same as GS, but there's 1 area, just like GS I mentioned, that I'd like to see taken out first, it's almost certainly going to be taken out any way, it sets up a good, low risk entry. I see GS is making the move toward the area I noted in the last GS post a few minutes ago, > $168.25. I'd think Financials as a sector would do something similar.

 This is long term views, 4 hour which shows the extent of the chart posted the other night from Bloomberg, which showed the net institutional sellers vs the net institutional buyers, a VERY interesting chart that makes this chart make perfect sense.

This 2 hour XLF chart shows the area I'm looking at (the yellow trend line), it looks like late last week XLF was set up to take a run at that level.

This is the 30 min chart so there's trouble in XLF nearby and it's worse than it's been for quite a while.

 The last small head fake in yellow before XLF turned down is the area I think is being targeted, the reason is simple, there's no easier way to set up a bear trap (in this case across multiple averages and industry groups) than a breakout above a clear resistance zone, especially if it has been in place for a long time.

This 15 min chart shows the attempt from late last week in to this week to give XLF a shot at that area, that's what I believe.

Coming at XLF from the other side, the 1 min chart shows the areas that were seen above on the 15 min chart, but it also shows distribution in to this recent move, perhaps more supply was put out than retail could absorb.

 We are looking for migration from here, we have it on the 2 min chart as well

and the 3 min chart.

I'll be watching for a  break above that level I noted, that's where these charts should fall apart fast and the high probability trade area.