Daily Wrap

Because of Friday's "blah" intraday signals and even the opening of futures Sunday night, I didn't expect much to happen Monday unless it was late in the day, I expected action to pick up Tuesday, but I must say in front of tomorrow's 2 pm release of the F_O_M_C minutes, I'm surprised at some of the action even though charts have been pointing to that.

What is also strange is how fast some divergences (positive) developed, but how tight they are, as if smart money was buying in to higher prices as if they knew something in advance about the minutes or had a plan of how they were going to shake things up, it just was not normal, perhaps increased market volatility, but I think the first option is more probable.

Credit acted a lot better today than one might think, especially because there was no real tell or build up, it just popped much like some of those linger term 15 min 3C charts did.

Gold and Silver got smacked down overnight around 1 a.m. but recovered, however this makes me wonder about the two assets and a real pullback in both.

 Gold 6 0 min chart so the smack down doesn't look as dramatic, but it was around 1 a.m. as you can see, the 60 min, negative divergence is in place, this is what makes me wonder how long they can hold up, I don't think too long.

Silver 30 min 3C chart also has a sufficient negative divergence and saw a sharp move down around 1 a.m.

Credit jumping back in to the fray was probably the biggest news other than divergences for a bounce.

 HYG Credit vs the SPX, that's an odd transition

HY kept up, but looked like it was suggesting a pullback for the SPX.

And Junk Credit also made an odd transition.

IF WE DO GET OUR BOUNCE, BE SUPER CAREFUL AND DON'T GET GREEDY WITH LONGS BECAUSE THESE MOVES IN CREDIT REALLY DON'T HAVE GOOD SUPPORT, THEY SEEM LIKE LAST MINUTE, "SOMEBODY KNOWS SOMETHING" AS WELL.

I've been showing USO a lot and looking to get in there short, it got smacked down today as well at the close so I'm hoping I didn't miss a chance.

USO today in the red box selling off during afternoon trade.

Currencies were quiet again, this is getting strange, I wonder if they're waiting for the F_O_M_C minutes?

For the first time in what seems like week, TLT finally not only moved higher, but resumed a "Close to normal" correlation, this is a long I put out a specific post about last night so I'll be looking for opportunities there.

As I said though earlier, one of the strangest things to me was some of the 3C signals today...

 SPY 15 min

IWM 15 min- this was a horrible performer just yesterday!

Financials 15 min.

Just like the "V" reversal in credit today, the 15 min leading positive divergences look very rushed, I'm quite sure there had to be buying in to higher prices to get that done and I can't think of many good reasons they'd do that without knowing something in advance. It's just too out of character, too strange.

I'll keep an ee on over night futures and I feel good having some calls in XLF and some other places, but I wouldn't want large exposure to this VERY strange environment that took place today.

One last thing, tomorrow the F_O_M_C minutes are released, they are typically more volatile than the policy statement, as I ALWAYS do, I'm reminding you to beware of the F_E_D knee-jerk move, it can be exciting, it's also often wrong.

I'll report back if anything else pops up, other wise I'd play it safe and any longs should be quality like MCP, at least as of today's close.