Tuesday, August 20, 2013

***Market Update

I'm thinking right now that the market behavior and cycles are all the same, just volatility is about to go through the roof, things that seemed like real time are going to seem like a blur.

Because of the number of charts, you'll understand why I didn't include more assets, but they;ere all looking roughly the same except for the Q's which still look like they are lagging/weak.

I'm using only 2 (really 3 ) assets, SPY, VXX which trades opposite the SPY as a flight to protection and VIX futures which VXX are based on (also trades opposite the SPY).

 SPY 2 min (but 1, 2, 3 min, ) look like the SPY is going to see a quick retrace of today's or part of today's gains.

VXX in the same timeframe all of the sudden comes up with a positive divegrence at the same time and a nice flat price range.

What was it, 24 hours ahead of schedule that the F_E_D leaked the Minutes to Wall St.?

This is the 1 min VIX Futures, also showing a VERY short term positive divergence.

So far all of this is in line with a market pullback which I have expected to create a bigger foot print to sustain a stronger bounce move and create more accumulation, but in a rare show today, it looks like there was even accumulation in to higher prices which would suggest the need to act quickly, as in "If you got the F_E_D minutes a day before they are marked for release.

 SPY 10 min is adding a strong leading positive divergence today, that couldn't happen if there wasn't some buying in to higher prices which is not seen often, I can't remember the last time.


 The 15 min chart looks even better.I can't imagine we have a positive like this and only get today's move out of it.

VXX in the 10 min timeframe looks the exact opposite of the SPY (as it should) suggesting a decent pullback.

However, just like the SPY positive stops dead at 30 minutes, the VXX 30 minute is hugely positive.

This all looks very much like a quick pullback in the market, a stronger base, a strong bounce that is sharp, but quick and a renewed downside move with even more power.

The VIX Futures 15 min looks amazing, I didn't expect to see a negative divergence like this here, but like VXX, there it is, this suggests the market DOES in fact bounce.

However at 1 day we have the largest positive divergence in a year and a half and that's because that's all I can see, meaning the market, is in serious trouble after this.

So how do we want to use this?

Try to ride a bounce? Wait for a bounce and short AMZN and others in to some price strength? It depends on you, I'd like to see some of our near term expectations to fill out.



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