Tuesday, August 20, 2013

XLF Sept. $20 Call Update

Financials have looked similar to the SPX since late last week, really not much has changed.

I'll show you the charts, my ideas for playing this and ideas that I won't use, but still like.

 1 min went positive at yesterday's lows, in fact quite a bit before as this Call position was opened yesterday around 2 p.m.

 The 1-3 min charts on the SPY and most other averages are negative for a pullback, they are positive on inverse trading instruments like VXX/UVXY, FAZ, etc.

I'd consider playing XLF $20 puts here, but I think it's very speculative and you need to be on top of it. Otherwise a quick long trade in FAZ (3x short financials) would also work assuming we haven't had a big move b the time this gets out..


 The 5 min XLF trend showing confirmation on the rally to the far left, distribution at top #1 and heavier distribution at top #2 as we's expect to see, but look at the change in trend recently.

 This is a close up of the 5 min chart above, it remains quite positive.

This is the 15 min chart, I've rarely seen a 15 min chart with such a quick and large lightening bolt divergence in virtually a day, the size is enormous, so it seems like there was buying in to higher prices so whatever set this off must be important and all I can think of is the minutes.

However, I want to use that upside strength to short financials. This 4 hour chart is everywhere, this is like the F_E_D, don't fight it.

You could use FAS (3x long Financials) for a bounce, I'd prefer to see a pullback near the $19.75-$19.80 range (XLF) before entering any more long.

You can use FAZ 3x short Financials as the bounce ends and you need a quick short on Financials although we'll be covering GS, JPM and others.

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