Early Futures Update

I say early because for Futures it still is early and considering the action was significantly different at the open of regular hours, something I talked about last night (low volume weekend open in futures is nothing like regular hours when volume increases substantially) vs overnight futures, there's obviously something to what I was saying which means that in essence, the useful data for futures really started around 9:30 this morning so as I said yesterday it will likely take at least the entire day today (if there's a strong trend) for us to see what's really going on.

Almost amazingly though, certain elements have just been pounded, like the NASDAQ 100 which fell all the way down to Friday's close this morning, closing the gap yes, but still, it's quite a fall considering where futures were pre-9:30 this morning.

 ES 5 min looks similar to last night (3C), however as pointed out earlier, lost significant ground at the 9:30 US open on volume.

The NASDAQ which gapped up so easily this morning lost that gap just as easily as morning trade took it to Friday's close, there's a small positive divergence intraday (1 min) at the lows this morning.

The 5 min R2K futures looked to be some of the worst (3C)  and saw significant losses at the 9:30 open.

Gold and silver

 Gold and silver both pulled back as expected last night, gold pulled back closer to the base area I expected (white trendline), however I doubt this would be the extent of a base so we'll have to see if we get a signal one way or the other as there isn't much right now.

Silver 5 min has held up a bit better, but Silver is NOT the QE asset that gold is.

The 30 year and 10-year Treasuries made new highs around the 9 a.m. time, I'm guessing on the poor Industrial production report that looked better for the QE crowd, but have remain largely range bound since last night's opening gap.

 $USD 15 min, I still like the $USD better than the AUD or Euro as a potential carry cross with the Yen, to me it looks better as I said last night.

$AUD 15 min had its moment, but I don't think it can hold

Euro 15 min I feel the same about the Euro as well.

The Yen is the wild card, it's looking a bit weak here so if the $USD does strengthen then the USD/JPY cross could support the market.

Yen 15 min. However you have to understand that this is short term, the Yen has built a substantial base all year, this is something I've been convinced since April will be part of the undoing of the market as the Yen makes a large upside move and the market to the downside at the same time, which I wrote about back in April as what I thought was likely to happen long before the Yen had carved out the base it has now.

As for crude, I mentioned it being down last night and why and also mentioned I thought it would see near term chop, the data so far this morning supports that opinion.

Crude gapped down last night, but a small positive last night has grown so I think crude chops around and ,may make for a short term trade, but it's not my favorite, chop never is.

Thus far there's no smoking gun, it's too early, but I am surprised at price action in the Index Futures.

I'll be checking on some other assets now that we are exiting a.m. trade.