Quick Leading Indicators Update

In the last post I mentioned some 1 min / intraday charts turning negative, but there not being any timeframes for the msot part to support them, thus looking like the market would try for an End of day ramp. After looking at Leading Indicators and then Context, I feel fairly certain something along those lines is heppening as Treasuries, specifically TLT head lower in a positive SPY Arbitrage manner, while HYG is in line with the market rather than lagging it, which I wouldn't have made any issue of if it weren't for HY Credit and finally the 1 min charts in VXX also have the same 1 min negative as the SPY, however nothing negative behind or longer than 1 min.

In fact VIX Futures themselves have a small negative 1 min with a huge leading positive 5 min chart, all suggestive of a market looking for an EOD ramp via SPY arbitrage.

Finally the SPY Arbitrage model confirms all of the above.

SPY Arbitrage chart showing what I suspected, however this looks to be a short, hollow victory, look at the VIX Futures...

 If this minor VIX Futures 1 min intraday negative is the best they can do to ramp the market, then look out for downside trouble because like the other averages or VXX that I mentioned that have slight a1 min negatives, the comparison between short intraday and trend is stunning.

 5 min VIX futures leading positive.

The 15 min is even stronger, but I skipped right to the 30 min...

 And with a 30 min leading positive like this, I didn't even bother to look further because it would not matter.

So assuming the is a small hollow intraday victory, consider the longer term VIX futures strength and then look at the CONTEXT model for ES at the largest dislocation I've ever seen.

This has hit -100 ES points, that's a water fall sell-off, still at -76 points this is nearly twice as large as anything I've ever seen on the model.

While HYG is in line with the market because it must be for SPY arbitrage to work, therefore it has reason to be manipulated, High Yield Credit which has been spot on with the trend looks very different being it has no correlation for manipulation of the market.

For the first time in many weeks, HY credit is diverging in a big way with the SPX, a clear negative market signal.

In addition, Yields which pull on the market like a magnet hit a new intraday low for the month today.

Finally the Russell 3000 most shorted index that typically outperforms on a squeeze and has leading qualities is negative vs the R3K today.

All things considered, I'll be keeping a very close eye on events as things are looking like they are simply out of control now.