I told you I'd give futures some time and check them, I also said it's rare that a 1 min chart holds up (divergence) through overnight trade, but why start a positive divergence so late in the day without an EOD ramp? The only reason would be if it continued through the night and thus far, NQ / NASDAQ 100 Futures are showing a great 1 min and even a 5 min positive divergence although not as impressive. TF / Russell 2000 Futures are also showing a 5 min divergence so 3C was correct this afternoon as tonight's futures bear it out.
This still doesn't change analysis, it doesn't change HY Credit dislocating from the SPX, it doesn't change the strong VIX future accumulation, it just means it's likely we see a bounce tomorrow, it might be the last day the market feels safe to bounce before Wednesday's F_O_M_C policy announcement when I think most would want to be rather flat.
NQ 1 min positive divergence holding VERY well and a beautiful rounding bottom or "reversal process".
You can see the 5 min chart is just starting to show this positive as well, the R2K futures 5 min chart is much more developed.
R2K Futures.
I looked at USD/JPY and while the $USD has a 15 min chart that looks strong, the 1 and 5 are not there yet so I'm guessing that the SPY Arbitrage will be what is used as we saw earlier today and in leading indicators.
Also of interest... Crude gapped down last night on the open, I said though that I thought it would chop around and guess what, there's a positive divergence there too so it should move up creating a choppy zone, down, up, down, up, etc.
Treasuries which dropped today also have some positive divergences.
Gold and Silver are more or less in line for now.
So, just what we thought at the end of the day is showing up in the overnight session, this is why patience is important, there will be a time to strike, but I didn't feel it was today yet and apparently for good reason.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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