Leaked EIA Petroleum Data?

The last few days I've been looking for an upside reversal in crude, I talked about it last night, specifically I think it moves up, but in to a choppy range and longer term I don't love it and think it will come down, but the first part was the recent positive divergences making me think oil / USO moves up.

Take a look at USO today, not sure if anyone is in the position, but it's up over 1% with a big move on the 10:30 EIA Petroleum report.

Released On 9/18/2013 10:30:00 AM For wk9/13, 2013

	Prior	Actual
Crude oil inventories (weekly change)	-0.2 M barrels	-4.4 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change)	1.7 M barrels	-1.6 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change)	2.6 M barrels	-1.1 M barrels

Domestic production showed little weekly change while imports were down sharply which, together with strong demand from refineries, made for a large 4.4 million barrel draw in oil inventories to 355.6 million barrels which is the lowest reading since March last year.

Refineries, operating at a very strong 92.5 percent of capacity, increased production during the week but, due to increased shipments to wholesalers, inventories fell for both gasoline, down 1.6 million barrels, and distillates which were down 1.1 million barrels.


The divergences we have been seeing in USO may VERY well have been a leak, the EIA Petroleum report use to be one of the most reliably leaked reports about a year ago and considering the extreme nature of the data, I wouldn't be surprised if some professional network got the data out to Wall St.

 The response this morning to the EIA report, a nice move up o  significant volume.

 I believe yesterday's break below support was a head fake move and the EIA data was leaked, here's why...

This 3 min leading positive divergence (which is the longest/strongest of intraday timeframes, but fast enough to respond to accumulation on a 1-day head fake break) shows a leading positive divergence, remember head fakes come at least 80% of the time just before a reversal for several reasons you can read about in my articles linked on the member's' site, "Understanding the head fake move".

Most of the leading positive divergence or at least half of it was YESTERDAY as prices were below support, the proof of a head fake move we look for.

I mentioned the divergence and likely move, but was not interested much myself because I believe it just moves back in to a choppy range, however, "IF" oil can move above the yellow trendline and we can continue to confirm deeper leading negative divegrences, a short there would be very interesting to me.