Monday, October 28, 2013

AAPL Dec. $535 Put Update

Earnings for AAPL are only a few short hours away and the Dec. $535 contract can still be exited where we entered it for at least break-even, earlier it was near double digits.

I've decided to stick it out, but there are some charts that are moving in confirmation with price intraday so I thought I'd update AAPL. I'll also say any change to that situation would occur on the fastest chart first, the 1 min and there is a change on the 1 min chart.

 This is an intraday 2 min chart that is pretty much in line with price action, that would mean the current trend (intraday which is up) doesn't have anything peculiar about it and there's no reason to believe it should make any drastic changes outside of the market, but that's usually reflected in the charts as well.

 The 3 min is also in line, not leading, not lagging, but in line with price.

I'll remind you from earlier if you were to zoom the 3 and 5 min charts out to their trends, you'd have something like this 3 min chart above that appears to show a very clean cycle from accumulation to mark up to distribution and borderline decline. There is no effective head fake in place in AAPL as of this capture.

 AAPL 5 min in line, again though if zoomed out, it would look more like the 3 min chart above, but I'm mainly concerned with intraday trade as earnings approach.


 This 15 min trend is still what has me hooked with AAPL and December is a fairly liking expiration in case I need to ride out any rough weather, so long as this 15 min chart stays ugly, I'm okay for the most part with remaining in the AAPL put.

This is the 1 min chart (intraday) I mentioned at the top of the post, it is going negative, for it to effect longer timeframes it would need to grow in strength (leading negative) and migrate to the 2, 3 5 min etc.

Since the capture, there's no migration, but the 1 min chart looks worse now than in the capture above.

No comments: