End of day close, VIX, SKEW and Credit

Here are the end of day prints on a small ramp attempt. Also we take a look at the SKEW and the VIX, how the SKEW is pricing in a lot of tail risk fear and the VIX is judged to be complacent, but not so fast. HY Credit is also seeing a significant shift in character/distribution.

 SPY intraday in to the close did not look good.

My view has been Monday would act similar to Thursday and Friday and that is to say, be a "Noise in the trend" day, not make any moves that would redefine the trend. I'd say we were right on target.

 If you look at the behavior in which last week I said I expected Friday to act like Thursday and today to act like the two previous days, you can see very clearly that is what has happened, however look at the very distinct change in the close view of the 3 min 3C chart, "Changes in character precede changes in trends".

 I also said although the leading negative divergences were still there, they were "Hung up", not making lower lows, today that changed.

 The Channel also shows more volatility within it with increased volume.

 I just updated the MSI (Russell 3000 Most Shorted Index) and as you can see, it has peeled away from the Russell 3000 trend with heavily shorted stocks underperforming rather than being squeezed.

 The IWM I said earlier was the strongest of the bunch, here's a 1 min chart that shows an unusual positive in the IWM that is at odds with the other averages.

The Q's didn't fare to well in to the close - 2 min. that may have something to do with the after hours beating AAPL is taking, but I don't base much on AH trade.

Finally, today was the first day someone sent me an article with another site finally picking up on the SKEW Index and they only did so because a reader sent it to them. 

As a reminder the SKEW Index is by the CBOE, it looks at out of the money options to try to understand "Tail risk" or what some would call a Black Swan event or market crash (sudden).

This is the SKEW in green very elevated indicating tail risk and the VIX which measuresSPX front month at the money or close to the money option premiums is considered here to be "Complacent", no fear. Taken together they'd say "Near term little fear, slightly longer term, lots of fear", however I'd caution about making assumptions of VIX complacency based on it's closing price.

The VXX (short term VIX Futures) in blue hasn't mad a single lower low since 10/18 while the SPX has made several higher highs, this is not normal and it shows the supply demand dynamic is keeping a healthy bid under VIX protection, otherwise it would be lower,  the 18th date is just another curiosity seen EVERYWHERE.

HYG (High Yield Corp. Credit)

 HYG 1 min trend, again the 18th figures prominently, in fact HYG was one of the first assets that set off alarm bells on the 18th as one after another asset showed some strange behavior.

The 5 min 3C HYG cycle...

The 15 min 3C chart

And as I said, the 30/60 min are now negative as well.

60 min after a very clean trend of confirmation.