Monday, October 28, 2013

GOOG

GOOG is interesting for the opposite reason of Priceline, it's the lack of a change in trend that makes GOOG interesting, but it's still the $1000 level that is key to the analysis like PCLN.

 For several quarters on this weekly chart there was an obvious range in GOOG and the obvious target was $1,000, but I just didn't see how it was going to get there on it's own, then came earnings and the work was all done , the move above $1,000 was no coincidence, never underestimate the subconscious and its affinity for whole numbers, that's why every retailer in America never uses a whole number, instead of $10, the price is $9.99- honestly, think about that. What does that 1 cent really mean? Well for retailers it means the difference between someone thinking something is a bit expensive at $10, but in the 9's it's not so bad.

It's the same with stocks, but in a slightly different way, stops and limit orders, etc all congregate at these whole numbers, people don't think "I'll put a limit at $987.31. the think $1,000.

So in any case, the important thing about GOOG is the work is done, it reached the area even though it didn't look like it would, that's not coincidence.

 This is the current daily chart with a large gap, normally in the past we'd consider this a break away gap, but times have changed and with them, gaps. Unfortunately now, most gaps get filled which is a shame because gaps contained so much information and reliable levels.

Here's where GOOG gets interesting...
 It takes a lot to move a 4 hour chart and there was a clear trend before earnings of distribution in the range, even if the 4  hour chart was to confirm the upside move, I'd expect it to take a few weeks longer, but I don't think that will happen.

 Note the 2-hour chart shows the same distribution pattern in the range, also remember that ranges are where we often see distribution or accumulation depending on the preceding trend, they look quiet, but they are actually quite busy.

 And the 60 min chart shows the same pre-earnings trend, this is interesting to me because there's a lot of confirmation of what was going on and a 60 min chart could have easily confirmed the upside move by now, in fact it could have done it in a day, it would be rare, but it has happened before, but no hint of confirmation which suggests there's no support up there beyond pegging GOOG in place to basically carve it up..

 Here we have the same pre-earnings trend on a 15 min chart, this could have confirmed the upside move in a day easily, but nothing even close to that.

 Even a 0 min chart shows the same pre-earnings trend and at best is pegged laterally right now. I believe this peg is to hold GOOG in place to distribute large chunks at a fantastic price that is really like a gift to Wall St. or anyone trading in their foot-steps.

 Even a 3 min chart!!!

With GOOG I'm not so focussed on a move to $1100, it's not really necessary and I don't know if GOOG would have what it takes as it's being carved up, but what I would be on the lookout for in concert with a nasty market day would be a distribution or churning day. 

To the left I drew a few possible candles that might be seen on such a day and the trendline would represent current price, so a gap up and a Shooting Star, Hanging man or a Long Legged Doji/Star.

The other possibility (I removed the current price so we could act like what is to the left is the range of the current price, this would be a Key Reversal day, it could take on several different candlestick patterns, but the key is a new high and a close at or below the previous day's close, May 22nd is a good example in the market averages.

The key to all of these price patterns is LARGE VOLUME, that's the churning element of it, so that's what I'd keep an eye out for in GOOG and I think a stop can be placed above the most recent intraday high so risk is actually quite minimal, I just wouldn't make the stop too close or too obvious.

I do think GOOG is a very high probability set up so I'd keep an eye on it, put it on your watchlist.


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