Tuesday, October 29, 2013

AAPL Update...

I'm sitting pat on the AAPL Dec.$535 call position, I'm not a fan of after hours trade for the very reason apparent last night, at first a 2+% decline and then back up, although 3C did a good job even in after hours as it was originally designed to do on that platform (TOS).

I'm not calling any victory laps on AAPL yet, the intraday charts were never in horrible shape, the position was based on the 15 min chart so I'm hesitant to revel in this decline thus far with intraday charts still neutral at worst.

However the 15 min chart is still good and there appear to be signs of a mini churning event on the 30/60 min charts which are the reason I preferred a leveraged short duration position over a longer trending one, but there may be something bigger developing in AAPL as you'll see.
If this daily chart were captured late afternoon today, I'd feel pretty good about holding the AAPL Put for a longer duration than normal. Not only do we have our "Igloo with a Chimney", we have a bearish engulfing candlestick with falling ATR on the move up and rising ATR at what looks like a move down.

Also, volume is going to be significantly above yesterday's from what I see, if the bearish engulfing candle holds, that volume makes it about 2x more effective, if it doesn't hold and forms a hammer or something like that, then I'd likely be looking to exit the AAPL put, but I'm getting way ahead of myself.

 The 15 min chart's cycle is what attracted me to the AAPL put, we have stage 1, 2 3 and we look to be moving to stage 4 "Decline".

This however is what I found interesting because the 30 and 60 min charts were "in line" when the position was opened, now we have a negative divergence on the 30 min with rising volume right at the divergence suggesting a churning scenario and what better time and place to churn than on earnings?

Although the 60 min trend has been really beautiful as far as accumulation and confirmation, we are seeing the first signs of the same negative on the 30 min chart so there may be something bigger than initially envisioned in AAPL.

No comments: