Full Market Update

This is really kind of silly when you look at the complete picture, but as soon as I'm done posting this, I'm going to be looking for assets because I just don't think the signals would be this developed in front of the F_O_M_C and then just be wiped out, not to say I think I know what will happen, I don't, I just don't think a cycle being set up with all the time it takes is just going to be washed away.


First as far as the VIX manipulation goes, just look at SPOT VIX vs the short term VIX (VXX) futures.

This is why it's almost silly to me that they need to resort to something like this on yesterday's NEW SPX high at a .15% gain way off the highs of the day and on no volume, even without signals you can smell the weakness.

What I find really silly is the price action and stuff like the SPY arbitrage, then look at everything else. This is a quick tour of some of "everything else".

 During last Thursday,  Friday and Monday in which I thought each day would act similar to the last and they have, just look at the channel intraday for the last 4-5 days). HY credit has been able to stay in line, today it is not and negative.

 Commodities still won't budge and aren't biting.

Yields which were and are leading negative were hung up at the lows, now they are moving to lower lows again, again this is specifically in contrast to the SPX price action.

Sentiment on both indicators we use above and below has gone negative.

Sentiment...

With the R2K making its way in to the green, you might have expected some short squeeze in the R3K Most Shorted Index, no such luck...

The Custom TICK Indicator for the trend/cycle is pretty clear, just look at the histogram below...

 And intraday TICK today is still very apathetic barely budging over or below -/+ 750

Some of these charts I didn't notate to save time, I thought the divergences would be obvious... SPY intraday

 Stronger, cleaner SPY intraday trend

SPY 5 min intraday trend, the trned version is way worse.

QQQ intraday 3C has been chop, much like the Q's...

The 3 min trend and I think you know what I'm drawing in white and why I didn't notate the divergence

 QQQ 5 min trend and this 18th keeps popping up.

 IWM intraday positive from earlier did send the IWM higher, it's still a "?" as it still hasn't made a higher high (3C) or locked in the negative, but it's not a sign of strength now, earlier maybe for this move.

The IWM 2 min trend and tight range.

 And the 10 min

The DOW Transports have been very strong so I was interested in them...

 This is the overall 15 min, I may look at a put here, perhaps tomorrow after the F_O_M_C especially if we get an upside knee jerk reaction.

The short term is the key to unlocking the longer term chart, this is 3 min intraday

 And 5 min intraday

HYG making that crazy arb move, this is what the intraday chart looked like while it did it, at least the IWM had a solid inrtraday positive.

And the trend which actually alerted us first to the strange activity starting on the 18th.

I'm going to look at specific assets now that I see a more complete picture.