Market and TBT Update

Here are a few of the more obscure things most people don't bother with that I think have some bearing on the day's trading action, we'll get more specific as to assets coming up, but for now considering the TBT long (for a TLT pullback) is still open as well as some leveraged 3x leveraged market average shorts)...

I know it's early still, but...

 This is the EUR/JPY carry vs ES (purple), Es is struggling here.

The 5 min VIX futures, the 15 min are positive, even just the flat range of the VIX futures vs the SPX is telling.

Intraday (1 min) UVXY which I'm using in place of VXX as consensus is that it tracks price better) is still mixed up in a.m. trade intraday, but the trend is clear along with VIX futures as VXX/UVXY represent short term VIX futures.

 3 min trend, again even the flat price trend itself is something pointed out many times the last couple of days.

And the 15 min chart is already charged and ready to go, it just needs a crank. I have an open November VXX call, down badly, but so was GDX and that popped back quickly. Short term VIX futures are also outperforming their normal correlation, as I said last night, looking at Spot VIX's price alone I think is a mistake without looking at the correlation vs the SPX.

 HYG Credit is at a new low as the 3C trend resumes after a pause, but the more interesting 3C feature is the very flat range again like VIX futures, this is where we most often see accumulation and distribution, most people think these are very inactive periods, but that couldn't be further from the truth.


HYG vs. ES this a.m.

HYG is also falling off in price v. the SPX.

Both Sentiment Indicators (not retail) are down as well vs the SPX, it seems professional money is making a little sidestep out the back door.


Yields are also buckling and breaking down, they are still longer term (in many ways and timeframes, but I mean this cycle since 10/9) negatively dislocated and they tend to draw price to them like a magnet.

Last night I was using Commodities vs the SPX for a recent proxy representing most indicators, correlations, etc.

 The couple of days we expected some upside noise commodities were in line and as I expected Tuesday to start to show signs of buckling under the pressure (that had a lot to do with China which is now a non-event for the moment), commodities in general are a good proxy if I were to put together a mass amalgamation of all indicators, this is the general look/feel.

And closer to home on an intraday basis commodities are underperforming on expected PM (Gold) and oil (pullback) weakness.

 TLT which I love longer term I have expected a pullback, thus the trading long position in TBT (2x short 20+ year treasuries)...

 And very close intraday that seems to be unfolding as the short term charts align and TLT looks to be coming off the right side of a rounding top.

I like TBT here still, I think it's still a tradable position and TLT has given a little break on an entry this a.m. on its gap fill.


Overall intraday NYSE TICK is very mellow at +/-750 which I envision like a Doji candlestick, indecision and when that creeps in, it usually falls on the side of reversal, especially after a strong trend.