Thursday, October 3, 2013

GDX / NUGT Trade Set -Up & Follow Up.

With gold acting noticeably better, I'd assume the fairly tight correlation between gold and miners will be beneficial to GDX / NUGT longs.

Being that I already have enough exposure to GDX calls, I personally would use this set up to add a NUGT long to the equity tracking portfolio, meant to try to capture a longer trend than what I typically capture with options.

Here are the charts and the set up which is close and lets the trade come to us at the best price and lowest risk as well as increased timing probabilities.
 5-day view of a large complex H&S top with a break below the neck line bringing the shorts in and a recent volume surge reminiscent of a capitulation or exhaustion event.

Typically these H&S tops are shaken out around this area with a move back above the neckline squeezing shorts who expect the neckline to hold as resistance.

 A closer daily look, we have what looks like an inverse (complex) H&S bottom.

With in that on a 60 min chart, the failed F_O_M_C knee-jerk reaction, then a bear flag that fails followed by a bull flag that fails and a current bearish descending triangle with price just under support as a possible/probable head fake move and the apex very close meaning a move would have to be sooner than later as they typically move before passing the apex in time.

3o min leading positive @ the descending triangle is interesting


 As is the 15 min leading positive

We also have a 5 min leading positive.

For me, the decision as to whether or not to add NUGT long would depend on the near term range at $24.30 being broken to the down side and clear evidence it has been accumulated, then I'd add NUGT long, but if I didn't already have GDX calls, I'd consider adding calls there instead.

This is what the positive 3 min chart would have to do, price below local support and 3C making higher leading positive readings.

I'd set some [rice alerts if the position interests you.


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