Thursday, October 3, 2013

USO Follow Up

I probably don't need to go over this again as the set up has been explained for about a week or more.

I would have preferred a deeper pullback for an entry, but you have to work with what you have and make the best decisions you can with the information you have at the time.

 USO's reversal yesterday with a head fake move as they occur on all timeframes, the market's behavior is fractal because the same emotions that move a 2 min chart move a 2-day chart.

I have recently explained a topping process as an "Igloo with a chimney", that's the rounding top with a head fake move just before the reversal and you can get an idea of what I meant here. The 2 min is leading positive right now, it could pullback for a stronger base, but I'm not too concerned with a little delay if need be.

 The 3 min chart also positive intraday and leading

The larger 30 min shows the grand plan, the first is to catch the long move that will shake out shorts, note the positive divegrence out here at 30 mins so it looks VERY likely and I would have guessed it without 3C just because of the price patterns and the way technical traders think and trade.

 The 4 hour chart shows where the trending trade is, so what do I want to do with near term price strength to take advantage of the highest probabilities for the largest trade as depicted on the chart above?

I want to sell short in to price action higher, but only when and where it makes sense.

It makes sense at 2 areas, the first is inside this parallelogram which is NOT a flag, that will cause some shorts to cover and demand to rise, "IF" we can get above the pattern, that is the ultimate entry with the lowest risk, the highest profit potential and the highest probabilities, although they are already super high.

You can see by the red arrow where the chart above this one suggests price is going as the primary trend.

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