In the 5 minutes it has taken me to capture a sampling of some of these charts, I've had to recapture them because they are moving so fast and new assets are being added every time I run through my watchlist. The Impression I get is that something is being discounted rapidly, something the market is not going to like. Protection is being sough, risk is being sold.
If I wasn't of the attitude that patience pays and there's always another bus if you miss this one, I'd have a hard time not adding a lot more short exposure. I'll explain some that I did add like AMZN which blew through resistance with distribution, the set up I'm looking for.
The other interesting thing (which I'll demonstrate later) is that distribution is already in effect in most assets, it's the short term charts, the ones that move the market near term on the upside move we had expected as the GOOG video makes clear 3 days before we got the start of it, that were positive. It's these same charts that are going negative so quickly, the implication being, they just found out something as well and are reacting violently and quickly.
Here are just as few assets to give you some clue and I can pretty much guarantee they'll be more extreme by the time I get this post out (5 mins or so).
This VIX 15 min futures chart (on the 15 min timeframe) has been in line with the price trend f=all week, really it gave a negative before the 9th and since it has been in line. The sharp move to the upside in 3C is massive accumulation as someone is seeking a lot of protection and fast.
Earlier I noticed it, but I didn't want to be myopic and didn't post it, but I have the SPX price (green) inverted so you can see how VXX should perform according to its correlation, it should follow the green SPX exactly.
Before I said VXX shouldn't be near break-even on the day with the SPX up +.65%, now it is positive/green on the day, again there's more demand that is overwhelming supply resulting in higher prices for protection.
HY Credit moved lower
I showed you the EUR/JPY dislocating with the market after near perfect correlation this morning and again this afternoon, it's not the Yen, this is the Euro falling apart suddenly with strong distribution.
HYG 5 min, it was 1 min, then the stronger 5 leading negative, "Credit leads, stocks follow", if it's not true in price yet, it was certainly true for 3C signals today as this grabbed my attention first.
QQQ distribution
Look at the IWM distribution, insane!
Financial sector, XLF
And a huge move in the Tech sector, XLK.
There are many more and as I thought, VIX futures are already seeing a strong 3C positive than what is posted above.
SOMETHING SERIOUS IS GOING ON.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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