Opening Futures...

These seem to be the only futures that count as I can't help to think the greater fool theory is in play.

A few days ago when I said the $USD wasn't looking good and likely to fall, there were two possibilities, the $USD as the carry trade correlation or the $USD as the legacy arbitrage correlation because in the first the historical correlation was skewed even when the $USD declined, but mostly when it advanced. Since the Debt debacle was put on suspension, China's Dagong rrating's agency downgraded the US as no sensible US agency would dare to do so after the S&P downgraded the US the last time this happened and has been chastised non-stop by the government ever since.

Then yesterday the Chinese called for a new world reserve currency (not the $USD) surprise, surprise, but in this case it has more sticking power so the weak $USD we saw just before the resoulution of the debt debacle (temporary resolution) has been looking bad and taking up it's historical legacy arbitrage, meaning doollar down and just about everything else up.

So take a look, but especially pay attention to the EUR/JPY carry which has decoupled from the SPX Futures and that smidge of strength seeming to build in the $USD, oversold bounce or not... Also gold looks a little hairy.

No need to mark the Index futures charts, I think they are clear.

 ES 5 min

NQ 5 min is finally looking worse

NQ 15 min is actually proving it's getting worse.

 R2K 15 min

This is the $USD 5 min seeming to get a toe hold on some kind of lateral base with a small 5 min positive divegrence building, the greater fool in SPX?

This is Gold 15 min, a bit worrisome looking.

And in purple is ES, the EUR/JPY carry has clearly decoupled with ES, if the $USD isn't going to drive much longer and EUR/JPY has veered off the road, then the greater fool indeed...