Friday, October 18, 2013

Trying for an EOD Ramp

It's obvious in the Euro (EUR/JPY) and High Yield Corporate Credit) (HYG), but it would be the biggest joke of the day as both are broken, but that doesn't mean they won't stop and do you think smart money would be buying said ramp, or...?.

For instance...
 1 min Euro futures intraday looks to have been working toward a closing rampo via EUR/JPY, however the Euro is broken.

The 5 min Euro chart

The 15 min Euro chart.

HYG is the other east ramp asset , I don't have to point out the distribution

However right in to the close, they gave it a shot.

Just a few minutes later the ramp attempt is cut in half...
AH brings the bid/ask back toward the afternoon lows.


I'll probably put together a video for theWeekly Wrap. There's too much that was too strange to cover with charts alone. A quick overview...

-The EUR/JPY FX carry trade that has been running the market since Oct. 9th suddenly fails just before the open and dislocates the most from the SPX since August.

-The quiet of Friday's earlier op-ex was (at least for me) shattered when the short term HYG 3C signals go sharply negative in a very abrupt manner.

-VXX (Short term VIX futures) transition from underperforming their correlation to suddenly outperforming their correlation.

-The actual VIX futures which gave a negative 15 min signal in the days running up to our custom indicator's Oct. 9th VIX  sell signal and then traded in line with price the entire time since then, suddenly are in a huge leading positive divegrence suggesting protection from market downside is being aggressively bid in 3C underlying trade.

-3C is correct about the VIX futures as VXX and UVXY that should have made a new closing low today suddenly start to very obviously outperform their correlation and are moving up almost the same as the SPX which is the exact opposite of what they should do and before the close, they are actually green on the day.

-Numerous assets see very sharp moves, distribution for risk assets and accumulation for safe haven assets ; the list includes market averages which have the most influence on price for the average stock followed by Industry groups such as Tech and Financials which have the second most influence on stock prices.

-As the day wears on, these divergences develop faster than I can capture and upload them.

None of this was the 2-3 p.m. op-ex behavior that is typical once the majority of option contracts are cleaned up.

Tuesday the BLS will have a data dump of all the macro economic data that has been missing since the government shut down. It is possible there was a leak and there's something in those reports the market is going to hate, but this was already known yesterday, it seems it's something else, but who can say.

Today was far, far from the average day. I'd have no issue with calling it a red flag day.

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