Market Update

This is the first of the day because I've been watching in hopes that I'll see something different during the more liquid regular hours than I saw in last night's overnight trade which lacked any market support at all as seen on the open today.

As far as today's lift off the gap lower, technically (to us, not retail), it's almost like a pause in the market, the IWM did NOT make a higher high and thus a breakout above the ascending triangle which is probably one of the only close catalysts that can re-shape trade quickly.

The SPY still has that 15 min positive, the IWM's 10 min positive took a small lump today, it's not enough to negate the divegrence, but it's not helping either.

HYG credit was the only (or main) asset Friday that really suggested the market WOULD NOT fall in a -10% 2011-like move, however a lot of what was there Friday has faded and right now there's no strong indications, only a hint that HYG "may" create a lateral consolidation/base that could be helpful on the upside, but it's so new that it could really turn in to just about anything.

The charts...

 SPY's intraday negative yesterday and today. The EOD yesterday was saved by VIX futures being manipulated, they are still lagging, but they are showing improvement. Short term VXX/UVXY are lagging a bit too, but much closer to in line or just indecisive. The longer term have been positive for some time and are still positive on longer charts which fits well with the larger market trend being a bearish one and expectations for larger trends to be bearish.

 SPY 5 min is still leading positive after last week's weaker positives.

The 15 min is still leading positive and there is a rounding process look to price itself, so I'm not giving up on a move higher, today just seems to be more fence sitting than real movement.

The TICK data for the market vs the SPX is losing its ROC just as price is doing the same as there are a number of intraday negatives much like this period yesterday before a late afternoon reversal.

QQQ 2 min above and 3 min below look bad and the Q's themselves look the worst of all of the averages all the way around.

3 min QQQ

IWM 2 min intraday is fading as well

As is the 3 min in an even worse reading today.

This may be why the 10 min chart has a small relative negative divegrence today.

DIA intraday is fading and negative

The 30 min chart, like the SPY 15 or IWM 10 min still hold out the promise of higher prices so long as they don't just sit here and deteriorate from distribution.

ES 5 min looks worse today than yesterday

As do NQ 5 min futures

 Only the 5 min TF look different, this is to me the most important average at the moment.

Sentiment in at least one of the two keeps moving higher.

It's pretty hard to get a feel, unless I can say, "It feels like there's very little conviction and a lot of sitting on the fence".

I'm going to spend more time on individual assets and see if a composite picture appears, this is old school analysis for me and very labor intensive as you need a large sample of at least 100 charts, but it may be the only place to find something that is giving a stronger view of the current situation.