Wednesday, October 2, 2013

MCP Follow Up #2

Earlier I closed 40 of the 50 contracts as the 10 contracts were paid for with the profits with an additional $1,000 already locked in.

Here's the P/L for the last 10 contracts.



As momentum died a bit by the time I got back to MCP, I lost $.10 on the contracts so that's a clear example of what happens when you lose momentum and even intraday volatility / theta kick in, this is why I'm quick to take the trade off if momentum looks to be fading, you can always re-enter.

The P/L @ a $1.52 fill and the same $.96 cost basis came out to be +58% over the earlier +.38% , but 10% less than if I had closed these contracts before momentum was lost intraday. That leaves us with a n average +42% gain or a bit over $2,000 for a half day of market exposure. Even MCP equity longs did well with a 10-15% 1- day gain, that's seriously not bad at all.

 MCP 3 min leading negative, I waited a little too long here.

 MCP 5 min leading negative.

However, the good news is our next MCP set up is looking more and more likely.

I like to capture initial breakout momentum with options, it multiplies the effect, but when it comes time to capture a longer term trending trade, I prefer to use a straight equity trade, it's less hassle, less draw down and a solid position.

 "To make money you have to see what the crowd missed"... In this case, a simple 2 day chart shows us what happens in MCP after initial momentum, a consolidation which is what we need to hit the most probable initial pullback of the 10-bar (60 min) moving average on our X-over screen as explained earlier today.

I drew in where I think the 10-bar average (price) will be by the time the two meet, somewhere around $7.20 and I want to set my alerts for this area so I know when MCP arrives there so I can double check underlying trade and if all is as it should be, enter MCP long.

No comments: