USO Update

I'm happy that in this crazy environment of a market, we made the right choice with the TLT trade and did well, we made the right choice with the MCP trade and did well and for the third day of the week, I knew USO was next, but didn't move on it fast enough and am actually quite perturbed with myself which is something I usually don't do, but it was clear, I mentioned it yesterday as the next trade, last night and pre-market, maybe there's still something. I'll set some alerts and see if it comes to a reasonable area, otherwise it's off to the next.

 Long term view of USO, the breakout of the triangle and parallelogram is NOT a bull flag, a flag consolidates away from the preceding trend or "flag-pole", this is consolidating with it so it's an unstable price pattern longer term and that's why I think a move to the upside will set up a larger short trade, that one I won't miss.

*Note the head fake moves before each of the major breakout/breakdowns?

 Maybe there will be some resistance at the bottom of the range that gives us a decent entry.

The 3C charts were all set up, we had the head fake below the recent range and the leading positive divegrence.

Even 30 min crude futures were leading positive.

We will see if the trade can be salvaged, but if you pay attention to the price movements, it's clear what to expect from these price patterns based on how Technical traders thing, I knew there would be a rally in USO, I've been waiting for confirmation and that's just because it broke support.

For the larger short I expect USO to see at least a move back inside the range to shake off shorts, a move above the range is a taller order, but a stronger short with less risk and built in momentum as longs chase the break out and provide supply to snow ball price lower as they are stopped out.