Thursday, November 14, 2013

GDX, NUGT, DUST

I think it's pretty near high time to make a decision, GDX calls have come back in a big way for me. These are December so I have to weigh whether I think this is likely a gap-fill from today's gap I'm seeing in the charts which I'd probably hold for or something worse.

As of now, I'm really on the fence, but I'm leaning toward gap fill, just because the larger base is so well developed.

  GDX larger base (60 min) with a leading positive divegrence.

GDX 5 min sending it up, this is still leading positive, if there were to be some heavier damage that changed the 5 min chart, I'd know it was more than a gap fill and would have to act on trading positions-not core long term trend positions.

 GDX 1 min intraday, you can see my concern

GDX 2 min intraday with 3C migration to longer timeframes.

NUGT should have the same signals as GDX, it is just 3x leveraged. The 5 min leading positive and then just holding today.

 However, 1 min leading negative like GDX

3 min positive yesterday sending NUGT higher today, but a 3 min leading negative today.

DUST si the exact opposite of NUGT, the 3 min leading positive confirms the weakness on intraday GDX and NUGT charts, but it is still only a day and 3 min, this leads me to believe a correction to fill today's gap is the higher probability and with December expiration (this could even be op-ex related I suppose as it is tomorrow) I think that's plenty of time to allow GDX/NUGT trading positions a little more room, but this is a decision each of us has to make based on your risk plan and tolerance.

If things change, I'll let you know

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