Most of this morning's chart have been very dull as mentioned several times, I'm not surprised, I doubt anyone is making any big moves while this uncertainty is ongoing.
Here's a look at the market averages, the IWM is particularly interesting to me because of the Channel Buster and its charts as well as the fact it should lead risk on moves and the dispersion between it and other indices.
SPY
Like most 1 min average 3C charts yesterday, this one is in line, this simply means there's no apparent underlying action that should upset the trend, it's also what I call 3C & price trend confirmation, but it is also the weakest chart so the indications there are generally for intraday moves only unless viewed as a long term trend.
However when we get to a more serious timeframe that would require some real underlying investment in the SPY yesterday, we see that it was not there,
it was as if, "If the market goes up, fine, but we are not investing in this run up".
The 5 min chart shows the accumulation area first saw last Thursday and Friday was the first day price responded, I called it a "mini cycle" based on the size of the accumulation area, if we look at SPY price since,
it's very much in line with a mini cycle.
Furthermore, the warnings I've had every day this week and in to last week as we had 2 and a half trading weeks of lateral chop creating a very obvious range, makes a head fake move (which we should see any way on a cycle this large, since the 10/9 lows) even more likely as more limit orders pile up just above resistance and stops as well.
There are many reasons for a head fake move, but the least of them are still compelling, all of the money to be made just on the bid/ask spread when triggering all of those orders and volume rebates.
This is why I say that I watch for an Igloo with a chimney (a rounding top with a head fake move on the upside that fails).
QQQ 1 min also intraday in line yesterday and most of today (the dull action).
The 3 min chart looks a bit different than SPX, but there's a lot of dispersion between the averages, still a negative in to today, but somewhat small.
The 5 min QQQ looks to be in line which is interesting as Tech is underperforming badly, recall yesterday's XLK update.
IWM
Intraday IWM 1 min is negative, yesterday's close is the yellow trendline, it has been struggling this morning.
This 3 min also shows the mini cycle which just happens to coincide with the drop below the channel to the lows (channel buster on the downside creating upside channel buster momentum) and the current channel buster (yellow) with a negative divegrence, but the real interesting chart remains the 5 min.
IWM was in a clear down trend of lower highs and lows before the channel buster, but look at the 5 min divergence in to the upside channel buster (which is typically a bearish head fake move).
Index Futures which went 1 min negative last night after Yellen and then surprisingly quickly 5 min negative.
ES/SPX E-mini futures
ES 5 min
NASDAQ 100 futures 5 min leading negative
And our TF/Russell 2000 (IWM) leading negative 5 min futures chart.
This at least gives us a post Yellen base line
No comments:
Post a Comment