GLD / GDX

Obviously with all of the Central bank chatter from Japan to China to Europe and of course right in the middle of D.C. today with Yellen, gold is an asset that has been sensitive to QE historically, there seems to be either a counter trend bounce of some size developing or a stronger "bullish" market, right now we are more in a basing area.

I like GDX (gold miners) and gold, but with the 5 min futures negative divergence last night, I wanted to take a closer look. My gut feeling right now is that I'd prefer to exit the GLD/GDX positions sooner than later (December Calls) and look at both closer to their recent bases. The reason? I think there's something real there for both gold and miners, but I'd rather trade them on their merits rather than rumor, "maybe's" or confirmation hearings, they just don't have the kind of support that I trust especially after watching the ECB and Euro over the last 2 weeks, spike and flop.

 This is a 60 min GLD chart, note the reversal "Process". The most recent bottom looked real, supported and even had a head fake move, the gap up in to a large gap area is a tough spot, I'd say if gold sees significant upside from here without filling today's gap, it will be on Central Bank news (Yellen).

 This is the 60 min chart of gold futures, like I said, this bottom looks real and supported

This is the same strength on the 60 min GLD chart so that's good confirmation, but it's the intermediate charts that aren't strong which means a gap fill is likely (given there isn't F_E_D news) which is an oxy-moronic thought today.

 This is the 5 min negative in Gold futures since last night.

We haven't seen the same in GLD yet on this 3 min chart, but GLD just opened and the 5 min negative was after hours in gold futures and overnight, so GLD would need time to confirm the same signal.

GDX has been trading close to gold recently, but very recently there's been a little more of a disconnect and that's not surprising given all of the Central bank chatter.

 However, there's a good base in GDX as well- 2 hour chart

However this 15 min is about the strongest / longest chart right now, it doesn't give me a lot of confidence unless there's improvement fast.

The 5 min chart shows a strong leading positive sending GDX higher, you can see it in NUGT too...

NUGT 5 min leading positive.

However, if it doesn't start to show some stronger/longer chart support, I'd like to look at exiting on any strength , especially if it is Yellen induced, then re-group.

The Core long NUGT position is going to stay in place, it is meant for a longer term trade, I'm specifically talking about trading positions, options or even NUGT if it was entered as a trading position rather than a longer term position.