Wednesday, November 27, 2013

I Was Wrong

Recently I had said the one thing I don't like about a bubble in this market and I can make a very simple case with just common sense...

At "A" we had a bubble in Tech, but at least the era made major advances in every field from shopping to investing, bio-tech, a true revolution.

At "B" we had a Consumer Spending Driven market and a strong one for a while,  even volume did what it should and went higher with prices. Obviously this was based on a housing bubble, but it kept this market alive and healthy for a long  even if we were using our home's equity as a personal ATM; boats and RVs were being bought, plasma TVs, remodeling entire homes, the economy was humming along during the good times before the bubble so something was contributed and unemployment was low. I made 3 times more in the position I was in then compared to the same position today. Anyone who walked in the door had at least a shot at a job, they were given a chance and full-time, not part-time. I can't tell you how much traveling I did back then, I was in Europe 7 times in 3 or 4 years!

Now at "C" are these valuations really worthy of this? What has been the contribution with high, persistent unemployment, no Cap-ex spending, just about every metric you can look at is horrible except liquidity which has killed those who did right and saved.

In any case, the thing that bothered me recently was all the talk of a "Bubble" in the market, I recall the "Housing " bubble, but not so much talk of an equity bubble, then I was directed to this interactive GOOGLE Trends, take a look for yourself, the search term, "Stock Bubble".

Apparently the issue was a bigger deal in October of 2007 than it is now.



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