Quick Market Update

As I said early this week, it's unlikely considering how many just got shafted on their insurance (Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida set to cut 80% of Florida policies-I think some 300,000+ have been cut), then there are plenty of Consumer Discretionary warnings right in front of Black Friday, I don't think they'd let the market have a negative close or a bad close that would further dampen sentiment on this all important retail weekend.

VIX futures intraday are almost pinned, I noticed this too yesterday. HYG is trying to hold up, but the trend in credit is clear. Yields may have been messed with a little to form some support, it's hard to say, but in the end there are really 3 charts or so that sum up why positions were entered over the last several weeks and specifically yesterday in the "Trading Portfolio" experiment.

 As the SPY is just about to go red, a small "Steering" positive divegrence pushes it back up, I honestly would not be surprised if the NY F_E_D's trading desk was on watch through the low volume trading day, this isn't tin foil conspiracy stuff, this is executive order, I'll get it for you if you like and that little intraday divegrence is exactly why we use the 3C intraday charts.

 VXX is outperforming on the whole as the SPX (green) is inverted so you can see the correlation, but there are intraday negatives that aren't pushing VXX down, they look like they are there to pin it and with low volume they can keep providing supply for any small bid stack and we'd have a 3C signal like that with price flattish.

This is the SPX heading back toward the HYG intraday after breaking off to the downside, the signals for weakness are already in place so a break to the downside is not anything novel.

However if we are going to look at credit, lets look at one that's not a lever of manipulation, High Yield...

This is a very different perspective and even adding HYG on a longer basis, you'll see the negative bias.

 Yields are up today, that can be mildly supportive, but really most of the market is pretty dull, sentiment indicators are flat, so are many others.

The IWM longer term chart and Channel Buster though are where I place probabilities and why I opened SRTY long (3x short IWM/Russell 2000) yesterday and maintain other positions.

The longer term , more powerful VIX futures like the 15 min

And the 60 min.

 And again, add Credit to that, you have nearly all the components of arbitrage and it doesn't look good for market bulls.

HY Credit vs SPX