Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Will be adding XLF (Financials) short or FAZ (3x short Financials) long to the Trading Portfolio

I'm trying not to fill this model up too quick, especially because I want to leave room for actual trading of shorter positions, where opportunities are available, but some of these are just too difficult to pass up.

You might consider this a reiteration of XLF short / FAZ long Trade Ideas.

Take a look at XLF and also note the very tight and somewhat quiet recent range, quiet markets are dangerous markets, as most of you know and if you have kids you'll understand, "A quiet market is like the kids in the room next door being a little too quiet, you know they're up to something" and in fact these flat ranges are one of my favorite scans, where nothing "appears" to be happening.

XLF...
 XLF intraday 1 min, note the tight flat range in yellow over the last several days, I'll be marking alerts on either side of the range, but the 3C activity at the same area is pretty clear among many timeframes.

 Here's a closer intraday look, still weak.

This is the 2-min chart, it has very much the same look at the same area, there are smaller BTD accumulation areas in white, but this is not accumulation on any scale more than what's already occurred since then.

 This is the 2 min intraday, also showing weakness at today's intraday highs.

 The 5 min chart again with the same look, at the same area, except the 5 min chart is generally where we draw the line between intraday and institutional.

 The 10 min, note where the divergence starts, if you understand why head fake moves (like failed breakouts/bull traps) are important, then you'll understand perfectly why this chart is divergent where it is, if not please read my two articles linked on the member's site, "Understanding the Head Fake Move"

 The 15 min chart with the 10/9 cycle accumulation, note the size of accumulation on a larger/longer chart and the size of the cycle, these are proportional. 3C is hitting a new leading negative low, we use to trade almost exclusively off 15 min signals, the fact we have much larger signals for a much larger time shows a much larger event taking place, THIS IS WHY I HAVE OFTEN MADE REFERENCE TO THIS BEING A "HISTORIC MARKET AND OPPORTUNITY".


The 30 min chart, note past divergences and the size and role they played and note the current leading negative at a new low on the chart, also the same area.

I'll let you know if I do see a great opening for FAZ, I do have an open position and will continue to do  maintain it

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