Monday, November 11, 2013

Leading Indicators

I'm not even going to put charts of these up because I think things can change so fast that they may before I even get them up.

Credit is severely negatively dislocated from the SPX, not just the manipulated HYG (rather HYG used to manipulate the market), but the uncorrelated HY Junk credit is even worse. HY credit is flat an unchanged on the day. One sentiment indicator is deeply negative and dislocated from the SPX, worse than Friday, the other has a fast move intraday to the upside which is almost confirmation of what my intraday expectations are, however if you look at the same indicator scaled out just a bit, it's deeply negatively dislocated, in fact I'll show you this one because it's hard to picture, but may be the best representation of expectations.

 Note the very fast move to the upside as the day wears on, this is what I believe would be the upside break out. Our second sentiment indicator is broader, bigger picture and it is deeply negative, imagine the chart below this one as an intraday 1 min and that's what it looks like.

This is the larger view of the same sentiment indicator above and the same theme as 3C, larger, more important trends going or already very negative with only very short term, weaker trends hinting at a false upside breakout.

However as I started looking at the Index futures, I see they are starting to worsen as the day wears on as well.

TF (Russell 2000) 1 min worsening, but the surprising one is NQ (NASDAQ 100 futures, really sharp decline/decay in 3C and ES shows the same intraday.

The 5 min versions which were already getting weak late Friday are largely the same as last night, TF looks a bit worse.

This is a very strange day with liquidity, no volatility and the bond market closed so no checks or balances on stocks, they could have went wherever they wanted, it's strange, strange, strange.

I'm going to look at some industry groups and see what they are pointing to.

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