Monday, November 11, 2013

Remember Our Vetran's... AM Observations

Today Armistice Day is observed in Europe and Veterans' Day in the US, I say thank you to our Veterans.

However this has also caused low volume across Europe and is surely going to be lower than recent volume in the US as the US bond market (that check and balance with equities) will be closed in observation of Vetrans' Day, however not equities so light volume, no bond market... sounds like the analysis provided Friday afternoon and refined over the weekend is probably about right, the mini-cycle may start to see more deterioration, but conditions are ripe today for upside or just any volatility.

In addition there's nothing on the US economic docket, but here's a look at the rest of the week with the highlight being Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

Overnight the Euro regained or bounced a bit off last week's selling...
 Here the Euro bounced since trade opened yesterday

The $USD sees a little soft patch overnight and...

The Yen sees some weakness allowing for the carry pair EUR/JPY and USD/JPY to levitate futures overnight.

 The EUR/JPY vs ES in purple since midnight (EDT)

USD/JPY vs ES in purple with Sunday to the right and the overnight session, the weaker Yen allowing both carry pairs some breathing room on the upside in the low overnight volume of the futures market.

Nothing much of note in Europe, Italian Industrial Production comes "In line", however there were ECB comments that rates could be trimmed more to allow the banking sector more liquidity.

China announced over the weekend a Strong Industrial Production print as well as Retail Sales and CPI coming in just below consensus, not too hot, not too cold and sounding very much like the typical "Goal-seeked" Chinese official data.

Other than that, 3C 1 min looks positive for the Euro going in to the US open on a 5 min basis, the USD looks unremarkable and Yen looks in line.

The ES, TF and NQ (Index Futures) 5 min charts look similar to last night , either staying in line with the charts from last night or deteriorating in some instances, especially TF (Russell 2000). The 1 min intraday charts are nearly perfectly in line, I'd think that won't matter to early in the session with low volumes and no bond market, but we'll see soon enough and perhaps answer the question of what does Wall St. or did Wall St. have in mind when setting up Friday's cycle on Thursday of last week?

We'll have more interesting data as the a.m. session burns off, there seems to always be a lot of stop and order/limit runs as traders with full time jobs place their orders and market makers and specialists hit them and run them.

Have a great day

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