Monday, November 11, 2013

Quick Market Update

Quiet markets are like the kids in the room next door "playing", but they're too quiet, you know they're up to no good.

From a look at the charts and what I saw earlier (although I'm going to flip to Leading Indicators and check that out), I'd expect a fast move sometime soon, I'd expect it to break to the upside, but I'd also expect it to be a failed break to the upside and that may be an area where I might be interested in adding a position or two, but I have maintained all of the trading shorts (mostly leveraged inverse ETFs like SRTY and FAZ).

 DIA 5 min, considering we are working from the mini cycle set up Thursday, carried out Friday, I see a lot of important timeframes since then going deeply negative like the DIA 5 min above.

Ot this DIA 10 min, but look how flat price is, that is a magnet for a false breakout.

The intraday 1 min looks like it will be to the upside, but considering the damage on the 5 and 10 min charts, I say the probabilities are very high for a failed move which makes using that strength (price) to enter a short or selling a long in to strength a tactical advantage. I always want to confirm any move to be sure, but with longer, more important charts that negative that fast today, the probabilities are already very high before any move even starts that it is a false move that fails.

 The IWM 3 min leading negative

IWM 5 min leading negative

The 1 min is leading negative, but could still move positive enough intraday to get a pop above today's range.

QQQ 3 min leading negative

QQQ 5 min leading negative

The 1 min saw an early positive and has been in line since.

SPY 3 min leading negative

5 min leading deeply negative, and note how tight the range is.

The 1 min intraday though makes it look almost certain there will be an upside move. I'll be looking at it very closely and seeing what if anything I might want to add, but first I want to check leading indicators.

This market is way too quiet considering volume and the bond markets are closed.


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