Back to the VIX

I have said all week that I thought the first place I'd see any signals would be in the VIX or more specifically in VXX / UVXY, so why should I abandon that logical thought? I'd think that right before an "unsure" F_O_M_C, there would be an unprecedented reach or bid for protection unless maybe someone knew something that allowed them to take some money out of protection and put it to work in yields grabbing assets, but I think you'd need to be pretty darn sure before you made such a move, especially just before the end of the year (although I can't even begin to contemplate how the limited time left in the quarter and year would develop on a chart like VXX which is the first several forward months so I won't even try).

If the VIX/VXX/UVXY essentially trade opposite the market and we have trading longs in place from market signals, that would be confirmation between the two broad assets theoretically.

If the VXX were screaming as a long, meaning protection was bid, it would look something like this...

 Past 2 min chart that is screaming, "Buy" and worked out. It looks a bit like the intraday PCLN charts right? I can't enter a VXX long until I see that, even though we have an amazing VIX (spot) Bollinger Band Squeeze, I need objective data and probabilities.

Right now the fastest charts (1 min) look like this, distribution of yesterday's attempted run, which activated the SPY Arbitrage and although there was a slight move today, it didn't amount to much.

Now take the same chart and put it in perspective.
 

From a leading positive and price up to in line on a pullback to a leading negative, this is not the screaming buy signal and if it's not there, where's the short term money flow going?

We didn't enter the trading longs from gut instinct, there was a reason, there were strong signals (remember the VIX/VXX, etc. trade opposite risk assets or bullish market/asset behavior).

Just to make sure it's not a fluke, there's nothing on the 2 min chart either, these are the fastest to register any new behavior just before the F_O_M_C, it's not there.

If I had to guess, I'd say either a cycle to protect the market has been set up like it was on the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls or there's a data leak or it's just so obvious to smart money that there's no taper or something to offset it, that's not obvious to me especially after what some regional F_E_D president's said just before this meeting's media blackout last week.

 Not too far away though, the 10 min chart is in line, no damage, remember that the market positives were 1-5 min only and their 10-mins were opposite this? The suggestion would be a short term bullish move like expected in PCLN and a larger bearish move, like expected in PCLN.

This chart has support, it doesn't take the long for the 1-5 min charts to go positive and the fact that this never saw deterioration suggests they will.

The 30 min leading positive is similar to the market's 30 min (plus) leading negatives.

If I had to make a best guess based on what I "KNOW" and have seen, I'd say the initial knee jerk reaction (I'm not talking about the first 15 minutes, but the first few days), is bullish and that shortly gives way to a bearish and I mean very bearish fade as is typical of F_E_D knee-jerk reactions.

The interesting thing about this theory as well is it would give the market "About" enough time to end the year on a positive note, but the window dressing set up (and the reason the internals are so whacky as shown by the Hindenburg Omens) is bearish so the start of the new year the market is more or less crushed.

That's my best guess considering the signals, considering the highs and lows all mixed up as evidenced by the Hindenburg Omen and the fact that the Omens have been in clusters of 5-7 or so before a move on the downside.

This is just speculation, but it's the best I have right now.