Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Leading Indicators Not so Hot

First HYG is not only missing 3C support, it's underperforming the market. High Yield Credit is absolutely underperforming and interestingly, at least 1 sentiment indicator looks like it was in on the F_O_M_C, it moved up significantly before the F_O_M_C and down significantly after the parabolic price spikes, which you know I never trust, especially when we are looking at what may very well be the initial knee jerk move.

Yields that were leading the market have been decimated, they are no longer in  a positive leading position, in fact the opposite.

VXX is still underperforming its correlation a bit, but I'm now seeing the 3C signals in VSS start to come alive, the ones which would have me calling for a long there. In fact, I'd be tempted to open a VXX call position here.

Commodities are also failing the market and there was one other I don't recall off the top of my head. This "may" be a great lesson in what I ALWAYS warn about, the F_E_D inspired knee jerk reaction.

In any case, I was not willing to put those profits at risk for a move that I was not impressed with (underlying trade).

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