Monday, December 9, 2013

BIDU Trade Idea Follow Up

I look at the BIDU chart today and just want to ask, "Isn't Wall Street and predictable?", but it's really Technical Traders that are predictable and Wall St. just uses that against them.

In any case, last week on Friday December 6th I wrote about a "Trade Idea: BIDU (Short)"

This was the exact chart and commentary following it from the post above....
"This is the same ascending triangle, first month Technical traders learn these triangles and know an ascending triangle is expected to breakout to the upside and start a new leg higher, so long as we know there's distribution already present in BIDU which we know from out initial entry, we know the chances of an upside breakout being a false or failed breakout are very high, but the breakout provides us with a short entry that is a better price, much less risk and much better timing as head fake moves usually come right before a change in trend."

And wouldn't you just know it, the move we are looking for for a BIDU entry or add-to as it was a phased in trade idea originally with 1/3 entered and 2/3rds remaining to be filled, as discussed last Friday, this is the actual chart and commentary in the post linked above....



"My first choice entry is "A", a breakout to the upside above the $170.78 level, the breakout would usually be quite strong, it has to attract the attention of bulls and convince them that this is a strong move, they are selling a lie, so they must really make traders believe so don't just expect a move to $178.85.

Once we confirm distribution in to a breakout, we know the probabilities are very high it will be a failed breakout and "From failed moves, come fast reversals", this is the hardest to short emotionally, but it is the best price, the least risk and best timing so holding your nose and jumping is actually rational even though emotionally it is hard to short a strong looking breakout."

BIDU today, just 1-day after the "Trade alert/set-up"....
 My EXACT "Option A" preferred set up... "My first choice entry is "A", a breakout to the upside above the $170.78 level, the breakout would usually be quite strong, it has to attract the attention of bulls and convince them that this is a strong move, they are selling a lie"

As I said in the initial post, since there's already significant distribution there the chances of such a move being a false breakout are already very high just like our last textbook short in BIDU, but I always want to confirm. Even though it's probably a little early, we do have initial signals.


 The initial 1 min chart, the fastest to respond is negative.

An intraday look at the same chart.

And the initial migration from the 1 min chart to the 2 min chart, also note the little dip accumulated just before the breakout.

From here I just want to keep watching these charts until I think BIDU is at a position where the divergence is so strong that it's ready to reverse and then enter the rest of the trade so the timing is as close as possible to get the best entry and to have the least amount of opportunity cost.

This is the exact, preferred set up posted Friday. As I said and even demonstrated Friday, that ascending triangle wasn't naturally occurring.

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