Chart examples

If you need to, go back to the last post and look at the range for DIA and where price is right now and the range for the IWM and where price is right now and what I said about the DIA not needing to struggle and looking the worst on 3C and IWM looking the best, also the VXX action and HYG.

Again, the concept of 4-5 trading weeks of range and probabilities from a technical trader's view, "The trend is your friend", what is the trend over 5 trading weeks?

Thus, what trend are you going to play and where do you think max pain is on the last and largest Options expiration with Quadruple Witching today?

 As mentioned, VXX / UVXY were accumulated right on the open, but as they neared break-even, note the small negative divegrence on a 1 oin chart, yet it stays bid because the correlation isn't falling.

 2 min VXX, also accumulated on the open- THIS IS WHERE I SHOULD HAVE ADDED THE SECOND HALF OF THE POSITION, BUT I DON'T LIKE A.M. TRADE AND I WANT TO SEE WHAT THE MARKET LOOKS LIKE AFTER A.M. TRADE HAS PASSED.

However as far as large accumulation, this 15 min chart of UVXY is right at that level in which I'd consider it to be screaming, the kind of chart I DON'T ignore. Even with the distribution to steer VXX intraday, we've added more to the divergence today.

HYG on the other hand is seeing distribution.

2 min HYG so there's migration of the intraday divergence.

 As for High Yield Credit that has no Arbitrage correlation (red) vs the SPY (green)...

 It's dropping today, but this is nothing compared to what it has done while we've been in the range.

 This 60 min chart shows you what HY Credit has done while in the range, what do you make of Smart money's take on the market here?

"Credit leads, equities follow".

As I said earlier, my market update notes were clear, DIA 3C underlying trade looks the worst, IWM looks the best, that has to do with where each is relative to their range, the DIA has already kicked those contracts in to the "Expired worthless" bin, the IWM would have the largest payoff so I think they'll work hard to force IWM options to expire worthless.

DIA 1 min above, compare to IWM 1 min below, and I'm not saying IWM is strong in any way other than them working it today...

IWM 1 min

DIA 2 min

IWM 1 min, you can see 3C is rising in agony.

DIA 5 min, why not distribute/sell/sell short up here, mission accomplished for option expiration, but as far as the IWM's 5 min...

Again, rising, but in agony, there was a clear 3C down trend and they are pushing it with all they have today within reason to cause retail options to expire worthless and the ones they wrote to come in at a handsome profit.

For this reason, I expect the last hour of today to likely be very busy with positioning new positions.