Friday, December 20, 2013

QQQ / SQQQ Update

Just as I was capturing and notating the charts for this update, what I'm looking for may be starting to happen.
As I've shown numerous times, 3C signals on REGULAR hour charts (not futures unless they're 5 min or longer) tend to pick up right where they closed the next trading day whether it's the next day or over the weekend.

Also as we talk about every Friday, most option contracts are wrapped up by 2 p.m., this means price doesn't have to stay pinned at the optimal "Max Pain" level and it's free to do what it wants after 2-2:30 p.m. on Friday, however it's not price that I'm concerned with the last 2 hours, it's the 3C signals, those are what are most likely to pick up where they left off at today's close.

So I'm looking at a long SQQQ position for the trading portfolio (3x short QQQ), but as you'll see, I'm looking for 1 thing to happen and just as I started writing this, it looked like it might be starting, we'll see.


 The Q's have broken the closing high, they are just above the intraday high at $86.53, the volume is pretty poor, you should see the TICK, it's even worse. If I had the time I'd pull up my NDX breadth indicators, but I don't have time with everything else I'm watching.

Intraday this is the QQQ, what does that look like to you? A TEXTBOOK reversal PROCESS, as I'm adamant about, reversals are a process, not an event except in a parabolic move, but they still have some process to them and the process is almost always proportionate to the preceding move, this is beautiful, but what do I look for?

An Igloo shape with a Chimney on the right", the chimney is the last minute head fake move that is typically seen right before e reversal (that is proportionate too, a head fake on a 5 min chart reverses faster than one on a daily chart).

3C looks great here, the chimney and a continuing divegrence would give me a high probability, low cost, low risk entry in SQQQ.

This is SQQQ, note the same reversal process, although this is the inverse with 3x leverage, so the chimney would be a low just below the intraday low, the 2-4 p.m. timeframe is the perfect time to do that as there's no more need for a pin.

 There's migration in the divergence too, whether looking at the Q's, the 2 or 3 x leveraged ETFs , bull or bear.

And the minimum timeframe I look for to open a position, the 5 min which I consider to be the first that shows true institutional intraday action, so this leading negative is beautiful, the price pattern thus far is beautiful. I just need to set some alerts.

There are several other assets that look just like this.

For those looking at PCLN, remember >$1200 is the area, but there's a really flat range, I'm guessing that's its pin for op-ex max pain, keep an eye on that one too.

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