Market Update & Leading Indicators

I have to get this out quick, I think you'll know what most of it is.

 Most importantly, SPY intraday and a little chimney.

 QQQ intraday.

And they did all of this with ZERO Arbitrage and ZERO Carry support, you'll see when you see HYG Credit and the Yen today, that tells you there was some brute force and it must have really been worth it, I imagine so with all 4 option types expiring, actually 5 if you want to count weeklies which cause pins on their own.

The VIX (spot) BB Squeeze now has a reasonable reversal process, it can move north from here with that process in place.

This is HYG Credit intraday! You'd think I inverted its price, CREDIT WANTS NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS QUAD EXPIRATION RUN, this is also why there's no SPY Arbitrage available to help.

This is credit (HYG) through the 5 week range, notice anything as the range progresses?

 I said way back then that the May 22nd Key 1-day reversal was a big deal, it will be studied in the history of this market as a key area where something changed. I think smart money was told about the taper because it was just after in June when we got the taper reaction with the 100 bp move in the 10-year yield.

Credit NEVER recovered, never went risk on with stocks and credit markets are a whole lot smarter than stock markets.

The area of most trouble I have been pointing out for a month or so was off the initial highs of the Oct 9 cycle, the run above those highs has been really ugly in all indicators, way off the charts from anything I've seen.

This High Yield Credit today, the risk on asset is not willing to take any risk with stocks, in fact the opposite,

Look at HY Credit during the range, similar to HYG, what does that tell you. The more I see, the more I think the big boys were alerted that December was D-Day.

Again HY credit around that May 22 Key Reversal day.

This is why the market is getting XERO carry support, as I published last night, the Yen positive divegrence  has kept the carry trades in the garage.

Look at the 15 min, this is what I published last night. For there to be a divergence this big and fat in the Yen, there was major buying or closing the carry trade, ironic the BAC comes out this morning and says they just closed the USD/JPY carry? That has to end with repurchasing or purchasing rather, the Yen, exactly what we see in the divergence above.

This also tells you a lot about the market if the leverage of carry is being shut down.

Sentiment from pro traders the last 2-days, they aren't willing to take the risk either.

This indicator has been leading, calling tops and bottoms and what is it doing now?

Take a longer look...

Sentiment...Uh-Oh...

Our other version, Recall the Oct 9 cycle and what I have called the worst looking area, the move above the cycle highs.

This is yields reversion to the mean, yields are no longer exerting any magnetic pull for the SPX.