Monday, December 30, 2013

Quick Market Update

The market has some complexities to it this morning, but it is more or less what I expected, timing though may be a bit different.

Price alone looks bearish in several of the averages with a few bear flags and such so technical traders may be feeling a bit bearish on the market, but just as Gold / GLD did move down and fill the gap, I expect the market will move opposite gold and catch some of the retail bears this morning off guard. There are intraday 3C signals to support this, some HYG, but not much, what is very clear is VIX short term futures are pinned again, there's no doubt they have demand, but there's also no doubt that someone is working them to pin them right where they are and not let them climb.

On the other side, the second half of the day (which may be longer than thought last night), the intraday positives all stop like a very finely delineated line and go positive like the 15 min VIX chart I showed last night, in most cases this is at the 5 min mark, so the general concept of what I expected last night is in play, we just haven't seen the initial intraday move yet , then we look for the 3C information. In gold/GLD, it is JUST starting to show some accumulation, it's not where it needs to be to buy yet, but it is starting, thus I suspect it will start accumulating when the market shakes out the initial retail bears on the intraday positive signals.

The actual underlying breadth is poor, it's stuck at -/+500 which is a VERY narrow range.

So I'll be looking to see if there are any assets worth trading VERY short term, but I doubt I'd take the risk, also checking on management of other assets.

However the punch line is EXACTLY the same as last night, the only thing that is different is the timing is longer thus far from my initial expectations.

Gold is going to make a fantastic buy, we do want confirmation of the pullback though if for any reason, simply for timing, I think it's fine otherwise.

Remember, you can roughly use gold's action as an inverse indicator for the averages and gold made a healthy move to fill that gap, so for the market you reverse everything, the move, the health of the move, everything.


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