Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Interesting Open

They (the big guys) have been trying to hold up a market that wants to otherwise fall, there's so much damage already in place and I think you know why I think they've been trying to hold it up.

It's Tuesday and that means it's a regularly scheduled PBoC action day and today's action was a very noticeable withdraw via a 14-day repo of 100 billion CNY and this just about 4 weeks after an unprecedented liquidity injection to save some failing trusts!

The market did not like this, in addition the Chinese property bubble is seeing Chinese banks taking money out of the asset class, in other words, things are starting to look very U.S. circa 2008 in China.

This was the USD/JPY just before the open holding support for the week around $102.20

 This is about the level of support the pair has been holding since the new week's open, it was just enough to allow Index futures to gain enough to get the US market to open exactly where it left off yesterday.

This is a longer look at the same pair so you can see the support in the area this week, but as I said, $102 is the main level that needs to be watched, a break under that could be it for the market.
 
This is just after the open, the USD/JPY testing right down to $102 EXACTLY and holding for NOW...

Note ES in pre-open action had drifted lower overnight and was set to gap down before support built in and lifted it to EXACTLY break even, to open right at yesterday's close, then that fell apart as the USD/JPY made its move lower to test $102.

The same thing in NASDAQ 100 futures.

As I said last night, they are trying to keep this market lateral and I think it's to fill positions, but this is apparently a market that does not want to stay here without a lot of support (the steering diveregences).

I'm going to get to it and start looking for other opportunities, I think it's quite clear this market does not want to be here, it wants to be lower, but it has been getting some help this week to keep the fills right at VWAP.

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