Simple Market Update in 4 charts

I've been looking around a lot the last 2-days and I could fill this post with dozens upon dozens of charts, but it's pretty easy to see what's going on.

You recall our range that started Jan 27th and accumulation in that range and then the next Monday the head fake move down we predicted the preceding Friday and being a head fake move, the continued accumulation in a small "W" base until Feb 6th, that was the accumulation to launch this rally that started Feb 7th, we predicted it long before it started with the boilerplate, "Wall Street doesn't set up any move without a reason", the reason here that we offered BEFORE the move started (not Monday morning quarterbacking) was to swing sentiment from bearish to bullish so they'd have something to sell short in to. To sell short you need to be able to sell and if everyone is bearish, who's going to buy? 

That was our expected reason for the move, but as I said BEFORE the move started, "It will have to be very strong to be convincing and even though I'm telling you what to expect ahead of time, it will likely be so strong that my inbox will be flooded with emails asking, "Are you sure, this seems awfully bullish?". 

The charts we have verify that this is what this move was about. In my view the last several days, at least the last two days, they have been trying hard to keep prices fairly stable as orders are filled near VWAP, they almost lost it this morning when USD/JPY decided to break lower and test $102. However there's no doubt in my mind that they are distributing in large size, the exact reason the entire thing was set up in the first place.

At this point the distribution is so sharp that when they can no longer hold this together on intraday charts or no longer need to hold it together, "Watch out below". I don't think we are right on the edge of that, I think we probably have at least another day, but I could be very wrong and when the market moves, it moves fast.

Here are the charts...

 intraday 1 min, we are getting these moves higher like the SPX yesterday and then they are failing, like the SPX yesterday, that's the distribution in to the prices whether a little higher or just stable in the area around VWAP.

The 2 min chart shows the price trend taking off on Feb 6th/7th and in line as they needed to push the market so it was convincing, that was easy to do early on as the short squeeze did all the heavy lifting, but I'd say all the shorts who are going to be squeezed are already out of the market, thus the flop in prices at the orange arrow, now they need to be actively involved in keeping prices up as I posted the last several days, VWAP is playing an important role as is USD/JPY and $102 support, but the distribution is clear once they got to the area where it was worth while.

 Looking at a 30 min chart makes the entire cycle easier to see, 1/27-2/5 we had accumulation with a head fake move that created a bear trap which created a short squeeze, confirmation on the early part of the trend where it was strong and very intense distribution and you can see the reversal process or that "U" shape in prices at the top as 3C leads negative on a long timeframes.

That's the story, that's the damage that's just waiting for these 1-5 min charts to fail and look out below when they do.

 A 60 min chart makes it just as clear, accumulation at the same period as mentioned and distribution which is already in bad shape.

As proof of their active role in trying to do what they can to keep the market from dropping until they are done, the usual suspect, HYG outperforming SPX, when they are looking for ways to ramp the market or support it, HYG is the first place to look.

Yields are down today so it's not all sugar coated.

That's where the market is at, pretty plain, pretty simple, it tells me I want to be finishing setting up my core shorts with the time we have left, how much is that time?

I'd say from leading indicators that it will probably at least move in to tomorrow morning, but that test of $102 this morning was very close to taking us over the edge, I'll have to check leading indicators before or around the close.