I have about 30% left to fill out to bring PCLN up to full position size (Short Equity Position, no leverage) so I'm going to go ahead and do that in addition to the put position which is meant as a shorter term momentum trade.
You may recall yesterday's post and the change in character of PCLN's price ROC, that very vertical move which I compared to AAPL's as well, it tends to be seen about 80+% of the time just as a stock is heading in to a top,
here's yesterday's post showing both...
Here's a look at both through PCLN's various timeframes....
This 1 min chart shows accumulation right about the middle of the chart and a small head fake move under the yellow trendline, not on a large scale, but enough to justify that gap up. Today's move has no such accumulation to justify or support the move, in fact you see a negative divergence in to the move.
This is a closer intraday look, it's the same pattern from yesterday, early support and then distribution in to a lateral trend (yesterday saw much of the price trend centered around VWAP).
The 2 min chart also shows the same accumulation for the gap up move and no accumulation for today's move which tells me it's not likely to hold for long.
On a larger scale, specifically the accumulation from Jan 27th to Feb 6th in the overall market is seen almost exactly the same in PCLN as you might expect as about 2/3rds of a stock's movement is dictated by the overall market, flowing with the tide;
in this case it's pretty specific, at "A" it starts right around the 27th and the move up starts Feb 7th just like the broad market (the head fake move/bear trap that led to a short squeeze).
"B" would be the same time as the market's short squeeze and "C" would be the equivalent of the distribution in the overall market.
If you want to look at this from a fractal cycle perspective, "A" would be stage 1 base/accumulation, "B" would be stage 2 "Mark-up" and "C" would be stage 3 "Distribution" and the next stage of the 4 stages in a cycle is 4 which is decline.
On a larger scale, this is the 15 min chart, it also shows a positive divegrence between Jan 27th and Feb 6th and distribution in to higher prices, today's move specifically is in leading negative position on a 15 min chart so I have no problem with puts nor do I have any problem with filling out the core short.
Scaled out the 30 min chart is actually in leading negative position, but I scaled it up to the most recent move , again the 27th through Feb 6th , mark up and distribution,
You can see from the 60 min chart that 30 min would be in leading negative position overall despite it following this move.
60 min overall primary underlying trend, even the accumulation of the 27th through the first week of Feb is not strong enough to show up here, meaning the distribution is quite substantial on a primary trend basis which is not surprising considering the first two charts from yesterday's post.
And the 4 hour chart needs no notes, you can see it pretty clearly for what it is, which is why I have no problem filling out the core position with the way intermediate charts look, it's more or less what I've been waiting for.
No comments:
Post a Comment