Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Looking Toward New Trading Positions

As I watch ES moving toward the lower band of the VWAP channel, even though we aren't quite near the area I'd expect, I'm starting to watch the weekly SPY $185 call bid /ask as well as the April monthly, I may look to split a position between the two.

The other option is the QQQ or IWM so I'm watching those as well as they may be better choices.

I do think you can get away with a leveraged long ETF for a quick trade once a "W" bottom is in, it wasn't really a great choice yesterday because of the probability of a "W" bottom forming, but if one is in place, then you might consider UPRO (3x long SPY) long, SSO (2x leveraged long SPY), UWM (2x long Russell 2k), URTY (3x long Russell 2000), QLD (2x long NASDAQ 100) or TQQQ (3x long NASDAQ 100). There are also Ultra and UltraPro ETF's for the Dow, but I's just assume stick with one of the 3 above.

With the beating momo stocks and biotechs took yesterday, I lean toward the IWM or QQQ a bit more, but that's going to have to depend on the stronger signals for me.

ES since regular hours moving toward the accumulation zone of the VWAP channel.

So I'll be looking for premiums to come down a bit more and as I said, may split the position (assuming I open it which is looking more probable) between the shorter weekly for initial momentum and the longer April monthly calls as that's my typical m/o for option positions (going with longer, in the money options).

I did want to point out that I think leveraged ETFs of the averages will work as long as there is a "W" base in place as it is just a bit bigger, but should allow sufficient profit potential to be worthwhile if you don't like trading options, which would be my first choice as this would still be a small base of only 2 days and not much in the way of strong divergences (as in 5 min+ charts).

There are some other assets like FXP and JJC that I'm also liking, JJC is an open long in the trading portfolio and of course GLD and its leveraged ETFs.

I'm going to pick through these a bit more and see if there's an advantage turning toward the IWM or Q's over the SPY.

I'll also update additional assets we have been watching. Continue to look for a ROC of the averages to turn sideways as that's the bottoming process and beware that any strong support levels created over the last couple of days are highly probable targets for head fake moves and as such, that's where you'll likely find your best entry so you might want to set price alerts for a move under any such level.

I have been considering taking a 10+% profit in SRTY (3x short IWM) as it was meant to be a longer swing trade type position, I just can't bring myself to close that based on some 2 min positives over 2 days when SRTY has enormous positives in the 10-60 min range.



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