Quick Update

It's pretty easy to take the temperature of the market via HYG, unfortunately we look at present experiences through the filter of our past experiences and this is not helpful in one of the most dynamic organisms on the face of the planet, the stock market, a colony of millions upon millions of entities making up this one large emotional heap, it is dynamic and that's why I don't like the charts that compare the price action today to 1989 or 1929 (if we followed those we'd already be in a bear market), if we believe in those we don't leave room for immagination of how bad this can actually be, we see 1929 as the golden standard for crash, we have a lot worse scenario now than back then.


In any case, when I say, "W" bottom, accumulation, there's an automatic assumption that a huge move to the upside is coming, but look at the trades I'm entering, WEEKLY calls? When's the last time you saw that? Or calls, but not equity longs, everything has leverage because the profit potential is not there without leverage meaning from what I'm seeing a bounce is likely, but a bounce that is worth trading with a straight SPY long? No, not at all, so throw away those filters from the past, understand that the market is ever changing especially as it moves from stage to stage as it has been.

In any case, HYG is the algo lever that has been used to manipulate the market , I showed it last night just holding on to keep the market holding on until this "W" base can bounce, but there's big trouble under the surface in HYG and that speaks to the entire market.

Take a look...

While HYG's price seems fairly stable, look at the 3C charts which I've warned about.

 HYG 2 min, bad, but...

the 3 min is worse and just to show you this is not intraday only...

look at the leading negative at new lows on the 5 min chart, HYG's guts are spilling out while it tries to smile as it holds up the market, this HAS to tell you something about the nature of the market's divergence and what to expect from it. That is why I won't lift a majority of even short term short positions, there has to be very good reason such as the GLD or GDX/NUGT charts, otherwise, I'm not risking losing the big move to chase a small move that has no real support anywhere.

I'll have more for you shortly, I still think this is largely about accumulating VIX futures which have been stubbornly persistent, a market bounce could send them lower, but even the Feb rally didn't do much to them. I've waited about 3 weeks now for the VXX long call position I want to post, but we are not there yet, when we are, the market shorts will be there too, the thing is, as we have seen numerous times, while it has been 3+ weeks, it can happen in 3 hours.